What are the Patterns Between Depression, Smoking, Unhealthy Alcohol Use, and Other Substance Use Among Individuals Receiving Medical Care? A Longitudinal Study of 5479 Participants.

To evaluate and characterize the structure of temporal patterns of depression, smoking, unhealthy alcohol use, and other substance use among individuals receiving medical care, and to inform discussion about whether integrated screening and treatment strategies for these conditions are warranted. Using the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) we measured depression, smoking, unhealthy alcohol use and other substance use (stimulants, marijuana, heroin, opioids) and evaluated which conditions tended to co-occur within individuals, and how this co-occurrence was temporally structured (i.e. concurrently, sequentially, or discordantly). Current depression was associated with current use of every substance examined with the exception of unhealthy alcohol use. Current unhealthy alcohol use and marijuana use were also consistently associated. Current status was strongly predicted by prior status (p < 0.0001; OR = 2.99-22.34) however, there were few other sequential relationships. Associations in the HIV infected and uninfected subgroups were largely the same with the following exceptions. Smoking preceded unhealthy alcohol use and current smoking was associated with current depression in the HIV infected subgroup only (p < 0.001; OR = 1.33-1.41 and p < 0.001; OR = 1.25-1.43). Opioid use and current unhealthy alcohol use were negatively associated only in the HIV negative subgroup (p = 0.01; OR = 0.75). Patterns of depression, smoking, unhealthy alcohol use, and other substance use were temporally concordant, particularly with regard to depression and substance use. These patterns may inform future development of more integrated screening and treatment strategies.

Do Alcohol Misuse, Smoking, and Depression Vary Concordantly or Sequentially? A Longitudinal Study of HIV-Infected and Matched Uninfected Veterans in Care.

We analyzed temporal patterns of alcohol misuse, smoking, and depression among veterans in care to determine whether these conditions vary concordantly or sequentially. Using the Veterans Aging Cohort Study, harmful alcohol use (AUDIT-C ≥ 4), current smoking, and depression (PHQ-9 ≥ 8), were measured. In regression analyses, predictors included each outcome condition at baseline, the other two conditions in the same survey, the other two conditions in the immediately preceding survey, number of years since enrollment, and HIV status. We found that current smoking and depression were more common among HIV infected individuals. Harmful alcohol use was more common among uninfected individuals. Temporal analyses suggested a concurrent pattern: each condition was associated with the other two conditions (p < 0.03, OR 1.12-1.66) as well as with the prior presence of the same condition (p < 0.0001; OR 6.38-22.02). Smoking was associated with prior depression after controlling for current depression (OR 1.16; p = 0.003). In conclusion, alcohol misuse, smoking, and depression were temporally concordant and persistent, raising the question of whether they constitute a common syndrome in HIV infected patients and others with chronic diseases.

How do different eligibility guidelines for antiretroviral therapy affect the cost-effectiveness of routine viral load testing in sub-Saharan Africa?

BACKGROUND: Increased eligibility guidelines of antiretroviral therapy (ART) may lead to greater routine viral load monitoring. However, in resource-constrained settings, the additional resources required by greater routine viral load monitoring may impair ability to comply with expanded eligibility guidelines for ART. OBJECTIVE: We use a published validated computer simulation of the HIV epidemic in East African countries (expanded to include transmission as well as disease progression) to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of routine viral load monitoring. METHODS: We explored alternative scenarios regarding cost, frequency, and switching threshold of routine viral load monitoring (including every 6 or every 12 months; and switching thresholds of 1000, or 10 000 copies/ml), as well as alternative scenarios regarding ART initiation (200, 350, 500  cells/µl, and no CD4 cell threshold). For each ART initiation strategy, we sought to identify the viral load monitoring strategy at which the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of more frequent routine viral load testing became more favorable than the ICER of more expansive ART eligibility. Cost inputs were based on data provided by the Academic Model Providing Access to Healthcare (AMPATH), and disease progression inputs were based on prior published work. We used a discount rate of 3%, a time horizon of 20 years, and a payer perspective. RESULTS: Across a wide range of scenarios, and even when considering the beneficial effect of virological monitoring at reducing HIV transmission, earlier ART initiation conferred far greater health benefits for resources spent than routine virological testing, with ICERs of approximately $1000 to $2000 for earlier ART initiation, versus ICERs of approximately $5000 to $25 000 for routine virological monitoring. ICERs of viral load testing were insensitive to the cost of the viral load test, because most of the costs originated from the downstream higher costs of later regimens. ICERs of viral load testing were very sensitive to the relative cost of second-line compared with first-line regimens, assuming favorable value when the costs of these regimens were equal. CONCLUSION: If all HIV patients are not yet treated with ART starting at 500  cells/µl and costs of second regimens remain substantially more expensive than first-line regimens, resources would buy more population health if they are spent on earlier ART rather than being spent on routine virological testing.

Impact of interventions targeting unhealthy alcohol use in Kenya on HIV transmission and AIDS-related deaths.

BACKGROUND: HIV remains a major cause of preventable morbidity and mortality in Kenya. The effects of behaviors that accompany unhealthy alcohol consumption are a pervasive risk factor for HIV transmission and progression. Our objective was to estimate the portion of HIV infections attributable to unhealthy alcohol use and to evaluate the impact of hypothetical interventions directed at unhealthy alcohol use on HIV infections and deaths. METHODS: We estimated outcomes over a time horizon of 20 years using a computer simulation of the Kenyan population. This computer simulation integrates a compartmental model of HIV transmission with a mechanistic model of HIV progression that was previously validated in sub-Saharan Africa. Integration of the transmission and progression models allows simultaneous consideration of alcohol's effects on HIV transmission and progression (e.g., lowering antiretroviral adherence may increase transmission risk by elevating viral load, and may simultaneously increase progression by increasing the likelihood of AIDS). The simulation considers important aspects of heterogeneous sexual mixing patterns, including assortativeness of partners by age and activity level, age-discordant relationships, and high activity subgroups. Outcomes included number of new HIV infections, number of AIDS deaths, and infectivity (number of new infections per infected person per year). RESULTS: Our model estimated that the effects of behaviors accompanying unhealthy alcohol consumption are responsible for 13.0% of new HIV infections in Kenya. An alcohol intervention with effectiveness similar to that observed in a published randomized controlled trial of a cognitive-behavioral therapy-based intervention in Kenya (45% reduction in unhealthy alcohol consumption) could prevent nearly half of these infections, reducing their number by 69,858 and reducing AIDS deaths by 17,824 over 20 years. Estimates were sensitive to assumptions with respect to the magnitude of alcohol's underlying effects on condom use, antiretroviral therapy adherence, and sexually transmitted infection prevalence. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial number of new HIV infections in Kenya are attributable to unhealthy alcohol use. An alcohol intervention with the effectiveness observed in a published randomized controlled trial has the potential to reduce infections over 20 years by nearly 5% and avert nearly 18,000 deaths related to HIV.

Identifying favorable-value cardiovascular health services.

OBJECTIVE: To identify cardiovascular health services with a high level of evidence to suggest that they deliver favorable value. STUDY DESIGN: Evidence synthesis using the Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry. METHODS: We queried the registry to identify published cost-effectiveness analyses of cardiovascular health services in the United States. In addition to searching the registry, we performed supplementary searches of published literature for cost-effectiveness studies of cardiovascular interventions that were endorsed by guidelines of national medical and scientific societies. We defined favorable value as an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $100,000 or less per quality-adjusted life-year. RESULTS: Our initial review of cardiovascular health services in the United States revealed 174 separate peer-reviewed studies. Of those, 157 studies did not meet our inclusion criteria, leaving 17 studies for further evaluation that covered the following services with potentially high value: statins to prevent myocardial infarction (for primary and secondary prevention), screening for and treatment of high blood pressure (diuretics or beta-blockers and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors in the case of diabetes) to prevent myocardial infarction and stroke, warfarin sodium and low-molecular-weight heparin to prevent pulmonary emboli, implantable cardiac defibrillators for patients at high risk of sudden death, antiplatelet drugs (aspirin and clopidogrel bisulfate) to prevent future myocardial infarction, beta-blockers for patients who have had myocardial infarction, warfarin to prevent future stroke in persons with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation, and percutaneous procedures to relieve claudication symptoms. CONCLUSION: We describe a new way of synthesizing cost-effectiveness evidence for use by consumers, payers, and other decision makers.